Democrats hope for comeback

In one week, I'll probably regret being so optimistic here. And that's one of the big problems with American Democrats. Between brief interludes, they remain a pessimistic bunch. These days, with a widely-predicted tsunami of electoral defeat on the horizon, that might be understandable. But it also explains why, as palpable evidence mounts that this election may not deliver a Republican senate triumph, only faint tremors in the Democratic establishment can be detected. Contrast this to the Republican camp, where nagging doubts have been transformed into nightly cold sweats . It is hard to envisage any situation where 2 November is a great day for Democrats. Certainly, victory in the house of representatives seems impossible to imagine. But in the senate, it's a different story: the long-predicted landslide is looking increasingly doubtful for the Republican party, and the hope of control of the chamber is slipping away as race after race tightens – in favour of Democrats. Take, for example, the Pennsylvania race between Democrat Joe Sestak, who has trailed Republican Pat Toomey for almost six months, with Republicans claiming victory and moving on to the next state months ago. Recent polling has spread panic on the right side of the aisle and has conservatives running back to the aid of their candidate. These polls show Sestak fast closing the gap, even gaining an advantage. With this sort of momentum it's possible – even probable – that Sestak will eke out a victory despite the massive Republican "trend year". What's at work behind this potential senate miracle on Main Street? For one, the Tea Party. As I predicted a month ago, Republicans – who were falling over themselves to court the support of Tea Party extremists in their hotly-contested primaries – are now paying the price. And even though Toomey isn't a Tea Party candidate, he did recently welcome Sarah Palin's endorsement . That guilt by association has not been lost on the more moderate voters of Pennsylvania. Then, there's the O'Donnell factor – based on the surprise victory of notorious Tea Partier Christine O'Donnell, the Republican nominee for Delaware, who is so ineptly extremist that she has been hidden from cameras, microphones, voters, journalists, pundits, columnists and pretty much anyone who might hear her spout gaffes . Just being in the same party as O'Donnell provides enough guilt by association, as it should. It's a reality not lost on Democrats who grasp the opportunity to tie their Republican foes to the "Delaware witchcraft dabbler". In essence, Democrats are finally grasping message discipline: across the country, you can hear the simple call of "It's the Tea Party, stupid." (Or, "It's the stupid Tea Party".) And so a similar dynamic is playing out in state after state. In Nevada, Colorado, Kentucky, Alaska, Connecticut, Washington and California, Republican senate candidates who are either Tea Partiers themselves, or who have ties to the Tea Party, are showing signs of implosion. In races that should have been – and, in some cases, were – locked up months ago for Republicans, we're now looking at nail-biting finishes . There are, of course, other reasons for the possible Democratic senate swing. President Obama has been racking up airmiles, crisscrossing the country in support of surging candidates. And he's still a brand that, on the road at least, voters respond to incredibly positively. But there is something more than Obama's mere presence in states at work here. That is the fact that his "wake up America" message may be resonating – the metaphor that Republicans want the car keys of government back when they crashed that very vehicle just two years ago – and now want to hand them to the political equivalent of a bunch of wayward teenagers – is apt and powerful. In fact, possibly as a result of Obama's visibility and message, polling shows that voters are still open to listening to arguments. That's rare at this stage in an election for two reasons: usually, by now, voters have made up their minds. And, remember, this was the year that Democrats were going to be punished. Voters who are just out to punish don't listen to he arguments. But that's not the case here . Of course, no article of this nature would be complete without a "CYA clause" ( Cover Your Ass clause, as we say in the US). This is an incredibly difficult year for Democrats. They are being outspent and outmaneuvered by millions of dollars spent on shady and coordinated interest-group attacks. The wind is not at their backs. But if senate Tea Partiers are in trouble now, before the election, then even if they do manage to squeeze out some victories, the Republican party is in for a rough spell. Victory – in the house or the senate, or both – will force them to reconcile the Tea Partiers with the moderates. Given that impossible task, this will give Democrats a massive political advantage going into the next election, whatever the outcome next Tuesday.