Republicans bounce back faster and further than predicted

Republican gains in Congress early today are testimony to how far the party has bounced back – faster and further than most analysts predicted two years ago. When George Bush left office with some of the lowest approval ratings of any president since the second world war and the US was caught up in Obama mania, the Republicans were in poor shape. They were split – as they still are – on whether to move to the right or the centre, and no candidate had emerged as potential leader. Nor has one emerged yet. Earlier this year, political analysts were unanimous in their predictions – the Republicans would make gains in the House races but fall short of achieving a majority. The consensus was that they would win about 25 to 30 seats. But they did much better than that in yesterday's election, making gains across the country and retaking the House. When all the votes are counted, it may turn out to be their best midterm results since before the second world war. The nearest comparison is 1994, a landmark year when they took 54 seats to win the House. There is a natural pendulum in US politics. When a candidate from one party wins the White House, the voter instinct is to swing behind the other party in the midterms to achieve a traditional balance of power. On average, the president's party has lost 24 seats since the second world war. But the Republicans have done spectacularly better than just that usual swing. The enthusiasm of the Tea Party movement contributed, as did the slow recovery from recession.