Irish bailout: could the bill exceed €200bn?

As Brian Cowen's government teeters on the brink tonight , there are suggestions that the real cost of the bailout could come to more than €200bn. The government hasn't confirmed the eventual cost of the bailout but the general wisdom is it would be in the region of €85bn to €100bn. But a very credible blog, NAMA Wine Lake , which has a very good track record on this financial crisis, has been doing a bit of number crunching and come up with a round figure of €207bn for Ireland Inc between now and 2014. Economists Brian Lucey and Stephen Kinsella have come up with similar figures - a quarter of a trillion euro all told. Staggering stuff. Here's a summmary of NAMA Wine Lake's nanalysis. ( You can read his/her full post here .) €5bn for National Asset Management Agency acquisitions from banks €43.25bn deficit funding for the next four years. Ireland's gap between income and outgoings this year is €19bn and official forecasts for next three years are: €16bn in 2011, €12bn in 2012, €9.75bn in 2013 and €5.5bn in 2014 €3.1b for promissory notes every year. A possible €31bn upfront loading on this. €38bn for repayment of national debt -bonds etc. €90-100bn to pay back the ECB for loans to the six state guaranteed banks Total: €207bn - more than twice that hinted at by European sources. Meanwihle economist Stephen Kinsella, who will be guest-blogging here on Thursday on the four year national plan, has arrived at similar figures of around €210bn. He says: I think we've been looking at the wrong thing. Everyone thinks there are just two pots to fill, the banks and the deficit, but there are five pots to fill. I would like them to publish their underlying assumptions. Also spotted by Stephen today is a Reuters table of European banks exposed to Irish sovereign debt, which puts German lender Hypo in the lead. The data was supplied to regulators under a stress test conducted in July. Do comment below, or email me at [email protected] if you want to get in touch confidentially.