General election 2010: What happens next?

Conservatives and Liberal Democrats form coalition Common ground David Cameron said he shared common cause with the Liberal Democrats on "the need for education reform, building a low-carbon economy, reforming our political system, decentralising power, protecting civil liberties and scrapping ID cards". On the Lib Dem plan to increase the personal tax allowance to £10,000, the Tory leader said at the weekend: "We are happy to give this aim a much higher priority and work together to determine how it can be afforded." Both parties would scrap the ID card scheme and introduce a pupil premium, which targets cash at the poorest pupils. Red line issues The Lib Dems want a referendum on proportional representation, while the Tories would retain the first-past-the-post system. The Lib Dems also want to scrap the like-for-like replacement of the Trident nuclear weapons programme while the Conservatives insist "the country's defences must be kept strong". The Conservatives have pledged to cut the budget deficit immediately but the Lib Dems would leave cuts until 2011 to avoid harming the recovery. On immigration the Lib Dems want earned regularisation of illegal immigrants who have been in the country for a decade or more. The Conservatives disagree and have promised not to be "weak or soft" on immigration. What will happen to Gordon Brown? Brown's three years as prime minister would be finished very quickly if Cameron announces he is able to lead government with the support of the Lib Dems. Will there be electoral reform? If Clegg accepted the Tory offer of an "all-party committee of inquiry on political and electoral reform", it would be likely to begin immediately. But Clegg is likely to demand more than that offer, which is an echo of the proposals made by Ted Heath to the Liberals in 1974. When will the next general election be? Tories want room to manoeuvre for snap vote. The degree of flexibility on election dates could be an awkward issue. The ­Conservatives will want to show that they can deliver stable ­government. Yet they will also be tempted to give themselves room for manoeuvre for a snap election. What are the pros and cons? An arrangement between the two parties, even falling short of a formal coalition, would be the quickest way of forming a government and so should please the financial markets, which are seeking certainty about the way the budget deficit will be tackled. The inevitable compromise involved in agreeing the deal could produce a government programme that allays the fears of millions of voters who did not vote for a Conservative government. However, fundamental differences between the parties on Europe, defence, the economy, immigration and electoral reform could render any alliance ultimately fragile. Conservatives form minority government If the Conservatives cannot agree with either party, Cameron could try to govern under a "confidence and supply" arrangement to avoid the daily fear of collapse if opponents blocked legislation. It would involve the Lib Dems and other minority parties promising to back the budget and the Queen's speech in exchange for agreements on other legislation. "Supply" refers to bills required for the government to receive money to allow it to enact its policies. Many observers believe it could be a weak arrangement prone to early collapse because smaller parties would struggle to stay on board for a lot of what the Conservatives want to do. What will happen to Gordon Brown? Under a Tory minority, Brown could argue that he should remain as leader to fight a ­possible general election later this year, but after 13 years as chancellor and then prime minister, he is unlikely to stay for a long period. He could resign immediately, leaving Labour's deputy leader, Harriet Harman, in charge until the election of a new leader. That could happen by the summer or could be delayed until the party conference in the autumn. Even if Clegg and Cameron do form a ­government, Brown may argue to stay on until the autumn to give his party time to regroup. The contenders for the Labour ­leadership are likely to be David Miliband, Ed Balls, Jon Cruddas and possibly Ed Miliband. Will there be electoral reform? No change. Under a minority Conservative government, proportional representation would be very unlikely to happen. At the weekend, Liam Fox, Tory defence spokesman, said the party was "very much against" electoral reform. When will the next general election be? Election likely within months. The Conservatives' reliance on support from other minority parties makes it likely there would be another general election within months – possibly in the autumn. Cameron will hope to time this to maximum advantage to deliver a clear Tory majority. What are the pros and cons? Cameron would be able to have a run at ­implementing a Conservative agenda and there would be certainty for markets about the ­direction the government was taking. However, it is likely to prove unpopular because of the cuts in public spending it must force through and because it only has a minority of seats in the Commons. Labour and Liberal Democrats form coalition Common ground They agree on a delay until 2011 before cuts are made to public services and on electoral reform in principle, if not detail. Both intend to reform the House of Lords to make it an elected chamber. They also agree on central government providing a boost to the green economy. The Lib Dems want to invest £3bn in housing, transport and green energy to boost job creation in the area while Labour aims to create 400,000 green jobs by 2015. Red line issues They disagree over the replacement for Trident and ID cards. On immigration, Clegg was "incredibly angry" when Brown rubbished his proposal to grant citizenship to illegal immigrants who could prove they had been in the UK for 10 years and could speak English. "I'm the only leader who actually wants to do something about it," he said during the campaign. What will happen to Gordon Brown? Brown will hope to stay in Downing Street as prime minister, but Clegg made clear during the campaign that "it would be preposterous for Gordon Brown to end up like some squatter in No 10". Brown is understood to have reacted testily when Clegg questioned the legitimacy of his decision to remain in Downing Street when the two men spoke on Saturday. Clegg must calculate that having Brown as prime minister would weaken the government, increase the chance of an early general election and so scupper Lib Dem hopes of a referendum on electoral reform. Will there be electoral reform? A referendum has been offered - but what form will it take? Brown has openly offered a referendum on electoral reform, although Labour and the Lib Dems disagree on the best form. According to experts in electoral reform, a referendum would take at least a year to put in place once the question had been agreed and legislation had been passed to allow it. When will the next general election be? This troubled coalition likely to fall sooner, not later. Labour may struggle to retain the support of backbenchers in a shared government with the Lib Dems, causing an early general election. Nick Brown, the party's chief whip, reportedly told Brown at the weekend that MPs will "not wear" a deal with the Lib Dems. But without Lib Dem support, there is simply no possibility of a Labour government. What are the pros and cons? This would give Gordon Brown the chance to stay on, at least temporarily, to try to secure the recovery as he believes he can. It also gives Labour a chance to regroup and prepare for a new era under a fresh leader in the short or medium term. But will the deal be strong enough to ensure that a referendum on electoral reform is not preceded by a general election? If this happens and the Tories win the general election, the window of opportunity to bring in proportional representation may close for years to come.