Aegis boss warns of 'two-speed world'

Jerry Buhlmann, the chief executive of the media giant Aegis, has warned of a "two-speed world" emerging from the financial crisis that will see a lacklustre western Europe deliver just 8% of global ad spend growth in the next five years. Buhlmann, speaking at the MediaGuardian Changing Advertising Summit , also said that newspapers will be the only medium not to return to advertising growth next year. They will see a 1.3% decline in advertising, he said. He added that while the economic recession had "more or less ended", media owners and agencies must prepare for a "fundamental split" that has emerged globally. In the period up to 2014, the "Bric" markets – Brazil, Russian, India and China – will contribute nearly 50% of growth in global advertising. By contrast, western Europe, including the UK, will account for just 8%. "There will be a long-term period of slow economic growth over the next five years in advanced economies such as the UK and US," he said. "It is a two-speed world with the BRICs, Asia Pacific and Latin America in significant double-digit growth." He said that China alone will account for almost £1 in every £3 of new ad spend globally over the period. "China is no bubble," he said. "China will be the largest contributor of ad growth over the next five years." However, after 2014, China's one-child policy will restrict growth, he added. Buhlmann predicted that India, where a "significant bubble of young working people" are set to join the labour force, will overtake China to become the No 1 contributor to global ad growth. • To contact the MediaGuardian news desk email [email protected] or phone 020 3353 3857. For all other inquiries please call the main Guardian switchboard on 020 3353 2000. • If you are writing a comment for publication, please mark clearly "for publication".