How home computers can predict climate change impact on extreme weather events

The weatherathome.net project will run global Met Office climate models but also, for the first time, run far more detailed regional models which can simulate specific weather events Photograph: University of Oxford The first part of the weatherathome.net project is a calibration run, in which models will be tested to see which best reproduce the climate and weather as recorded over the last 50 years Photograph: Atmospheric, Oceanic & Planetary Physics/University of Oxford The next experiment will examine extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and floods, in the 2020s and 2030s. One region looked at in detail will be Europe Photograph: Atmospheric, Oceanic & Planetary Physics/University of Oxford Another region looked at in detail for extreme weather events will be the western US, which is expected to experience water shortages on some areas Photograph: Atmospheric, Oceanic & Planetary Physics/University of Oxford The final region examined in detail will be southern Africa. This simulated screenshot of the experiment in progress on a computer shows clouds Photograph: Atmospheric, Oceanic & Planetary Physics/University of Oxford The next experiment returns to changes seen since the 1960s and attempts to quantify to what degree these changes can be attributed to the effects of human interference in the climate system. The difference between simulations with and without human-caused emissions will be used to assess the human contribution to recent weather trends Photograph: Atmospheric, Oceanic & Planetary Physics/University of Oxford The final experiment also looks back into the past, at snapshots of the weather over the last 10,000 years. This is the first time large numbers of regional models will have been applied to such “paleoclimate” simulation: an unprecedented opportunity to explore the evolution of the weather over recent Earth history Photograph: University of Oxford