Falling crime rate may be a lagging indicator of what is to come

The unexpected fall in the crime rate in the past year despite the deepest recession in the postwar era may be because crime is what economists could call an "old lagging indicator". As the justice secretary and former chancellor, Ken Clarke, suggested earlier this week, no one can prove cause and effect but he correctly pointed out that the fall in crime rates since 1995 had mainly been during periods of economic growth with strong employment levels and rising living standards. Home Office criminologists were surprised that the predicted rise in property crime – mainly stealing from cars and burglaries – has not materialised since the onset of the recession. They suggested that this could be because home and vehicle security is much better than during the previous recession of the early 1990s. All new cars have immobilisers and homes without basic window locks and security alarms are six times more likely to be burgled. There may be some truth in this improving security argument but more powerful is likely to be the delayed rise in the unemployment rate. It is in this sense that crime is a "lagging" indicator that tends to follow a rise in joblessness. As the public spending crunch leads to predictions of an extra million jobs disappearing in the next four years, it will be a miracle if Tory ministers can go into the next election able to boast about a fall in crime during their period in office. Against this background, record prison numbers, record numbers of police officers, greater use of CCTV, a global fall in crime in developed countries and even a decline in the real value of many household items are all alleged to be behind the long-term fall in crime in England and Wales. The Home Office noted them all but refused to commit itself to a single definitive explanation, describing them instead as "competing hypotheses". One of the "more speculative alternatives" cited is the idea that car crime is a "debut offence" for offenders and the improved security has put off many a potential career criminal. But it is the question of a link between the record prison population of 85,000 and the fall in the crime rate that is one of the most politically charged questions. The massive US jail population is said by some to be the reason crime has been falling there since 1988, while Canada has had a falling prison population and a falling crime rate. Classic British criminology says there is an "incarceration effect" but it is small. It takes a rise of 25% in the prison population to cut the crime rate by 1% or 2%. On this basis it is likely that the 100% rise in prison numbers since 1992 is probably responsible for about 5% to 6% of the 50% fall in crime since the 1990s.