Australian Open 2011: It all points to Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal

Threading any combination of lines through the draw for the Australian Open inevitably leads to the same conclusion: Roger Federer will defend his title against Rafael Nadal in two weeks time. They have not met in the final of a grand slam since Nadal beat Federer in five sets here two years ago, but history demands their great careers should intersect again. They are at or near the zenith of their powers and, since his breakthrough at Flushing Meadows last year, Nadal, peerless on clay, has the right to regard himself as a master of all surfaces. Neither do they lack incentive. Federer is within reach of 20 slams, the new target the man with 16 such titles already to his name has set himself; Nadal will complete a "Rafa slam" if he adds the Australian to his 2010 French, Wimbledon and US titles. If their next collision does turn out to be in the final here, and presuming neither breaks a leg in the first round, Federer will probably have beaten Gilles Simon, who has gone backwards since he was No6 in the world in 2009, the improved American Mardy Fish, a fellow Swiss Stan Wawrinka and the No3 seed, Novak Djokovic, to get there. Nadal's likeliest route to his second (and Federer's fifth) Australian final could be a fellow Spanish clay-court specialist Daniel Gimeno-Traver, the unpredictable young Australian Bernard Tomic, Andy Murray's some-time hitting partner Marin Cilic, the classy Russian Mikhail Youzhny and Murray. Nadal was falling to pieces physically when Murray beat him en route to last year's final and although this year the Spaniard arrives after shaking off the effects of a heavy cold, his confidants are upbeat about his health. "He is fully recovered," Nadal's agent, Benito Pérez-Barbadillo, said. "After Doha, he had two days off and even played soccer on the beach. He came to Melbourne on Monday night and has been practising twice a day since Tuesday. He is in good shape." So, as Federer is invariably in perfect running order, all would seem to be set fair for their 23rd meeting and 19th in a final. Nadal leads 14-8 overall. Of their eight slam finals, Nadal has lost only on the grass of Wimbledon, in 2006 and 2007. Federer would seem to be the one on the rise. Since his disappointing exit at Wimbledon, he has reached the semi-finals of all five tournaments he has played, winning four of them – including the World Tour final against Nadal, who was shattered after Murray stretched him in a remarkable semi-final. Federer started 2010 with this trophy in the bag then fell away on clay and grass before his late-season revival. That uneven form prompted John McEnroe to doubt if Federer would ever regain the No1 spot from Nadal, so big was the gap between them in ATP ranking points. It stands at 3,145; to haul Nadal in, Federer would have to defend his 2,000 points at stake in this tournament and rely on Nadal doing poorly in the other three slams. That is a big ask. Both say they do not care about the top spot, which is tough to believe from champions driven by a palpable lust for success. Indeed, they are so far ahead of Djokovic in third place, Robin Soderling in fourth and Murray in fifth that members of the alleged new generation are struggling to assert themselves. Still, while Federer and Nadal play like gods, they remain fallible. At 29, Federer has shown glimpses of vulnerability that were not so evident a couple of years ago, yet he insists he wants to win at least another four majors; Pete Sampras, who would finish with 14 big ones, expressed similar sentiments when a young Federer beat him at Wimbledon in 2001, the only time they met on the ATP tour. Good judges would say the American was further advanced along the road to retirement than is Federer, but these judgments are fine ones. For Nadal, five years younger, his future is always linked to his suspect knees. A year ago, they brought him to grief here against Murray, although his surgeons have repaired them remarkably well. I fancy he will win this title, and do it against the one player who resides in his tennis stratosphere.